At the end of last year, the global economy was precariously balanced as various geopolitical traumas weighed. Forecasts suggest 2020 will experience a recovery, albeit a weak one.

In its latest economic soothsaying3, published in the autumn, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) outlined that the global economy is growing at its slowest pace since the financial crisis and downgraded its 2019 world growth forecast to 3.0%. The IMF also stressed risks remain skewed to the downside.

Cautiously optimistic

The IMF predict growth will pick up this year, with the world economy forecast to expand by 3.4% in 2020. While this may suggest green shoots of recovery are set to emerge, it does imply any recovery is likely to be modest, as uncertainty about prospects for several emerging market countries, a projected slowdown in China and the US, and prominent downside risks, mean a more subdued pace of global activity could present.

3IMF, Oct 2019

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